Variables

• Relative Volume: >= 3
• Average True Range: >= 1.0
• Average Volume: >= 1M
• Below long term technical key level.
• The 9-EMA is below the VWAP and builds an unique type of divergence on upslope followed by convergence on downslope.
• Less volume when the price moves away from VWAP than when the price is moving back towards VWAP.
• Convergence occurs in less time than the time of divergence.
• Once the price clears the 9-EMA, it holds below and is riding the 9-EMA.

Short Strategy

• Enter if the downsloping 9-EMA crosses the VWAP.
• Stop Loss is 1/3 of the distance from VWAP to the high.
• Cover into significant key levels from the daily.
• Look for an over extented move to the downside on high volume to signal exhaustion and a place to take final covers.

Big Picture

• US stock index futures fell after President Donald Trump reignited concerns about the effects of a global trade war by introducing new tariffs, while markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision this week.
• On Sunday, Trump announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the US but offered little clarity on how the levies would be implemented.
• The S&P 500 fell 31.4 points, or 0.55%, at the open to 5,655 while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 160.7 points or 0.89% to 17,817 at the opening bell.
• Technology stocks fell premarket as XLK was down 2.1% and the Semiconductor ETF XSD was 2.4% lower.

Intraday Fundamentals

On April 14 2025 Webull disclosed that it completed a reverse merger with SK Growth Opportunities (SKGR), making it a listed company on Nasdaq. Webull shares jumped 383% as intraday trading volume catapulted to over 29 million from a daily average of about 169,000. In the meantime the stock was continually traded back down to the previous levels.

• RVOL: 14.34
• ATR: 5.57
• Avg Volume: 2.19M
• Institutional Ownership: 2.25%
• Short Float: 0.29%
• Day Range: 17.39 - 14.42 = 2.97
• VIX: 23.96

Technical Analysis

Trade Management

Expected Value

• EV = (Reward * Win Probabilty) - (Risk * Loss Probability)
• EV = (6.625 * 0.65) - (1 * 0.35)
• EV = 3.95 (A+ Trade)

Recording

Trade Review

• This trade signal appeared on the scalp scanner.
• Many checks were in my favor: Market down, consolidating below VWAP, strong overall down trend, high RVOL.
• It was a high probability trade with best risk reward ration of 1:6, an A+ trade. But the bid ask spread was not tight, was widening up to 20ct and I was not sure about the liquidity. Risked 30% instead of 60% of the daily risk.
• I was calm and managed the trade well. Was taking profit at supports and moved the stop loss down to lower highs.
• At 11:12 midday BULL stopped trading higher into the VWAP. I got interested as the stock was holding below VWAP and resistance area. But the volume was low, the tape did not move and it was midday, which was not a good edge.